A mere 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source of the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was much more joyous. When the England international swept in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, find themselves just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, even as the positive results have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a club which has put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to trade blows with rivals before hoping their talisman to save the day with some clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United had more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As Rogers faced the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
